Roulette-inspired Football Betting
I've been betting on football for longer than I care to remember, and though I've tinkered with a few what could loosely be termed as “betting strategies”, and always ensure I find the best available odds or deals, for the most part it's been a case of putting to use the hundreds and hundreds of hours spent watching and reading about the game.
All you are doing by applying your knowledge of the game (exactly the same as using that tip from the stable lad for the 4.15 at Uttoxeter) is changing the odds very slightly in your favour. If you can do that enough, often you will be in the position where you will be winning more than you are losing.
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Nowadays, no matter how much we know about the game, the bookies have access to so much information and data that it's getting increasingly harder to get that edge. There is software on the market that we can use to try and close that gap, but that is like trying to beat them at their own game, with fewer resources. So I thought it was time to try out a different method, one embracing another one of my loves – roulette.
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You only Spin when you're Winning
Roulette is one of the world's most loved casino games. It has frustrated, delighted and changed the lives of people since the 18th century, and because of its simplicity it's perfect for this strategy. We are going to forget about all the possible roulette bets available, and concentrate only on red and black betting. The vast majority of roulette betting strategies revolve around this type of betting. The flaw they have is that they are designed for perfect 50 – 50 or even odds. Over the long term, it is always going to be the case that the house has a slightly better edge because of the zero -or, if you're playing American roulette, the additional double zero- but in the short term these methods can be used with a degree of success.
With football, we can choose the odds we play with. We can make a selection that is exactly even, which is something a roulette player, no matter what he does, can never achieve. Now, I know that the odds on football bets are not mathematically pure like those on a casino wheel, but by shopping around you can ensure you are getting ones that are to your liking.
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How it works
The first thing you need to realize is that this is a long term strategy. It is designed to work over a long period – an entire season, ideally. The second thing is that this isn't going to make you rich but you have a very good chance of being up when the trophies are handed out come May.
What you need to do is to choose a match or a selection of matches where the combined odds total evens or as near to that as possible. There is no gain in being greedy here - the whole point of this method is to use even-money bets, so by going longer it will simply disrupt it.
Now you need to find a progression and stick to it. This is crucial for this system to work, regardless of whether you're playing the tables at a Las Vegas Casino or placing sports bets online. For those completely new to progression betting, it is simply a system that dictates how much you bet on the next match/spin/roll of the dice based on the outcome of the last one. There are many different types, and most can be either positive or negative. Positive progressions mean you increase your bet when you win; negative ones are where you increase it when you lose.
In this case, we will need to use a negative progression. There are two disadvantages to using these methods. The first one, regarding the odds needing to be evens we have already eliminated. The other one is that if you have a long losing streak, which can happen to everyone, you can fairly quickly be laying down large bets. For this reason, picking a progression, and more importantly a unit bet that you are comfortable with and can afford is crucial.
The D'Alembert System
This is one of the simplest and safest techniques, and is a good way to start off. All it entails is that you increase your bet by 1 (1 x your unit stake) after each loss, and decrease it by 1 after a win.
The Martingale is the original progression. What you gain in simplicity, you lose in the fact that you can very quickly be placing large bets to recoup your losses. After every loss, you need to double your stake. (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, where the numbers are multiples of your unit stake.) If you suffer 5 losses, which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, you will be betting 64 x your stake. Lose again, and it's 132.
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This neat progression, based on ingenious but ultimately simple 12th century mathematics, is a lot less aggressive than the Martingale, but will give better returns than the D'Alembert. Simply continue along
the sequence when you lose returning to 1 after a success.
No, this isn't where you qualify spectacularly for tournaments before imploding when you get there, due to a combination of petty squabbling, infighting and egos. It's another simple roulette progression:
1 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 9 – 11 - Simply increase by 2 every time you lose the amount you bet (x your unit stake).
There are many more progressions, so take your time and choose one that matches your level of aggression and budget.
Another advantage of this method of betting is that it gives you the opportunity of betting on other sports, ones you have hitherto avoided because you feel you don't have the knowledge to be successful in them. That no longer matters; all you need to do is select markets where you can easily get odds of evens.
On the surface, this may not seem like the most exhilarating betting strategy, but at the end of the day if you are winning, the method you employ matters very little.